Last week could not have gone any fucking worse. I get the Colts at -1 and right as they are getting ready to take over the game, Brissett gets hurt. Plus Vinatieri missed like 3 fucking kicks. Then the Packers played their worst game in the last 5 years with Aaron Rodgers killing my Packers pick plus my over pick. Then I’m just a dumbass for thinking the Browns would get it together.
I faded College Football this week after not really liking the board except for LSU. I thought about taking a week off from the NFL, but I really like the board this week so fuck it. Let’s fucking roll!
Overall ATS: 12-16
Overall O/U: 3-8
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 @ Tennessee Titans
Patrick Mahomes is back and I think it is a fucking horrible idea! They have two weeks until the bye and they are still in 1st in the AFC West and I have no idea why he is playing before the bye. Whatever though, because with him playing this offense is too fucking explosive and Tennessee is one of the most confusing teams in the league.
The Titans are giving up 275 YPG in the air over their last 3 and they are going to get exposed by a full compliment of Chief weapons. Tyreek Hill and Mahomes are playing their first full game together this year and they are going to light it up. The Titans, although only allowing 18 PPG on the year, have allowed 25 PPG over their last 3 games while the Chiefs have held their last 3 opponents to 20 PPG.
The Chiefs defense is coming together at the right time and I think it all clicks for them in a blowout today!
Pick: Chiefs -6.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5
For starters, Arizona is 6-3 against the spread this year while Tampa is on the opposite end of the spectrum at 2-6 ATS. The Cardinals keep games close for the most part and Tampa has one of the worst secondaries in football. The Bucs are giving up 32 PPG on the year and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense has not looked like a gimmick this year.
Kyler is in the OROY race and has put up some solid numbers this year. The defense has not been great, but one thing they are above average at is getting after the QB. Over their last 3 games they are averaging 3 sacks per game and we all know how Jameis does under pressure. The Bucs are allowing him to be sacked 4 times a game this year and for a QB who fucking panics under pressure that usually ends bad.
I expect Chandler Jones to introduce himself to Jameis early and often today. He leads that front 7 with 9.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles and he is going to fucking get after it today!
Pick: Cardinals +5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers -5
Both of these teams have been pretty solid against the spread this year, and both teams are competing for a playoff spot in the NFC. This game could have huge implications on the playoff picture.
My gut told me to go with Carolina because CMC will run all over GB and they will control the tempo of the game. CMC will run all over this GB defense, but Kyle Allen is going to be the one who struggles today. The temp at kickoff is supposed to be below 30 and I’m pretty sure it will be the coldest game he has ever played in.
On the other side, GB played awful last week and I don’t think anyone expects them to look like that again. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones are going to have big games especially since Carolina has been really susceptible to the pass over their last 3 games. They have allowed 277 YPG through the air over those games. They are also allowing over 130 YPG on the ground over the course of the whole season which means a big game for Aaron Jones is coming.
Pick: Packers -5
Bonus Value Moneyline Play
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys -3.5
The narrative for this game is, of course, that Kirk Cousins fucking blows in primetime. With that narrative being so prominent, I am leaning in the opposite direction. Minnesota is one of 12 teams allowing less than 100 YPG on the ground this year and the Cowboys rely heavily on the ground game.
Dallas is also one of those 12 teams, however, they are allowing 115 YPG on the ground at home which may bite them in the ass because the Vikes rely so heavily on Dalvin Cook. He got shut down last week in KC but I don’t see it happening two weeks in a row.
Adam Thielen is out, but over the last 5 weeks, Kirk Cousins has been as good as anybody. Since their Week 4 loss to the Bears Cousins has averaged 297 Pass YPG, with 13 TDs and only 1 Int. He has been awesome, but people are still doubting him.
I think tonight is the night Cousins makes a statement and flips the narrative on its ass. I expect a big game from him and Diggs as the Vikes waltz into Dallas and beat the Cowboys.
Pick: Minnesota +160
If I end this week with a losing record, I will switch to strictly basketball because I am dominating the NBA so far this year and I just seem to have the worst fucking luck in all of football this year. Let’s fucking get it!