This week will almost undoubtedly determine at least one of the Heisman finalists. The matchup of the year between teams and QBs will take place in Week 11. Alabama vs. LSU. Tua vs. Burrow. The stage is set and the winner will put their team in a prime position for a playoff berth as well as putting themselves at the top of the Heisman conversation. Both were on bye last week along with the other candidates: Chase Young, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields. Justin Herbert put himself right on the outside of this group with a big performance on Saturday.
At this point, as fucking insane as it is, all the RBs (Taylor, Hubbard, Dobbins) are out of the running. The reality is that for a RB to win this award, not only do they have to go fucking nuts, but their team also needs to compete for a national championship. Hubbard would undoubtedly be in the top 3 if not for a couple losses to Texas Tech and Baylor. Dobbins would be too except he has 2 better options on his own team in Fields and Young. Taylor’s stock fell to the floor after the back to back losses to Illinois and OSU. Dobbins is the only one who can sneak back into it with a couple of HUGE games down the stretch. When I say huge though, I mean FUCKING HUGE. Like 250+ and 3 TDs in at least 2 games. Otherwise, it’s just not going to happen.
Here are the 6 left with a shot at winning it and what they need to do to win it!
1-Joe Burrow-205/260 Passing (78.8%), 2,805 Yards, 30 TDs, 4 Ints, 125 Rush Yards, 3 TDs-Joe has been right in the middle of a culture change at LSU. He has already broken almost every LSU passing record and he is turning this into an offensive minded football program! What he needs to do to win the Heisman is exactly what he has been doing! Keep throwing out 300 yard/4 TD games and he will win. Winning the SEC would make him a shoe in, but if he continues to play at this pace, I can’t imagine a loss would prevent him from winning the award. A big game on Saturday in the marquee matchup of the year would at the very least guarantee his spot as a finalist in NY.
2-Jalen Hurts-133/180 Passing (73.9%), 2,4,69 Yards, 21 TDs, 3 Ints, 801 Rush Yards, 13 TDs-Jalen has been insane all season long, but the loss to KSU really fucking killed him. To get back to the top of this race, he will need to replicate what Kyler Murray did last year. That entails, winning out and averaging 4 TDs per game over the last month of the season. With the way these other QBs are playing though, that still might not be enough. Last year Murray was the beneficiary of Tua sitting out almost every 4th quarter and not padding his stats. Well this year Burrow, Tua, and Chase Young are all playing in competitive games, but are still playing out of their minds. Hurts has a big opportunity this week to get off on the right foot with a BIG game against undefeated Baylor.
3-Chase Young-22 Solo Tackles, 7 Assisted Tackles, 1 Pass Defensed, 13.5 Sacks, 5 Forced Fumbles, 15.5 TFLs-Chase Young is the best player in College Football. At this point I don’t think there is anything disputing that. The issue here, as it has been in the past, is it is extremely difficult to quantify what he does on the field in stats. No matter how good you are on the field, the Heisman voters seem to want to see stats to prove their points. With that said, Chase Young will need to get to at least 20 sacks to win the Heisman. He shouldn’t need to get there, but in reality, he does need to. He has two HUGE matchups to raise his stock with PSU and Michigan before the possibility of playing in the B1G Championship game. With at least 4 games left, it will be interesting to see.
4-Tua Tagovailoa-145/194 Passing (74.7%), 2,166 Yards, 27 TDs, 2 Ints, 2 Rush TDs-Tua’s biggest downfall this year was the injury he sustained that kept him out for a week and a half. He has been unbelievable all year, but he will have plenty of chances to move back up the list. Obviously this week is the LSU game and then in a couple of weeks they play Auburn. Tua needs to outplay Burrow and beat LSU and Auburn to win the Heisman, regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship game. I think Tua and Joe are both going to show the fuck out on Saturday, it’s the Auburn game that worries me for Tua. Auburn’s defense has been fucking awesome and it is a huge rivalry game that will make or break the Tide’s playoff hopes and Tua’a Heisman hopes. Tua does not even have to be great in the Auburn game. Just like Joe Burrow, all he has to do is manage the game and get a win.
5-Justin Fields-128/186 Passing (68.8%) 1,659 Yards, 24 TDs, 1 Int, 319 Rush Yards, 9 TDs-Fields has not put up some of the gaudy yardage numbers like Hurts and Burrow, but he is as efficient as it gets and he contributes an ass ton of TDs for this Buckeye team. In order to win the Heisman, Fields will have to carry the Buckeyes past PSU, Michigan, and the B1G Championship. For Fields to win it, the Buckeyes cannot ride Dobbins or the defense, they will need to ride Justin Fields through those 3 wins. He will need huge games in all 3, but it’s possible. Not likely, but possible.
6-Justin Herbert-200/288 Passing (69.4%), 2,329 Yards, 24 TDs, 2 Ints, 1 Rush TD-Herbert is very quietly having a Heisman type season. I feel like he lost all the buzz after the Week 1 loss to Auburn. If Bo Nix doesn’t make that play, the entire 2019 CFB landscape is flipped right now. Oregon is probably undefeated in the top 4 and Justin Herbert is probably closer to the top of this list. Herbert is a longshot, but for him to win the Heisman Oregon needs to win out with Herbert having huge numbers in every single game. Along with that he will need Burrow and Tua to shit the bed at least once while both teams lose a game. If Oregon makes a run at the playoff, that makes this convo really interesting as they would essentially be doing it on the back of Herbert. If Oregon loses 1 more though, I think he is done.
There is a good shot we see any combination of these 6 in NY and I am leaning towards 4 finalists being invited this year. Burrow, Tua, Chase, and Jalen should all get the invite. We may also see all 6 if Fields and Herbert finish with huge performances down the stretch. Here is my prediction for who should win and who will win!
Who Should Win-Joe Burrow-Like I said earlier, Burrow is changing the entire culture at LSU. He is putting up ridiculous numbers that LSU and the SEC have never really seen before. My argument is no one in SEC history has done what he is doing this year, whereas under Lincoln Riley, 3 different QBs have done the same fucking thing. Burrow is changing the game at LSU and he is leading one of the best teams in the country in the process. People will argue that Chase should win, but if you take Chase Young off of OSU’s DL they still have a top 10 defense in the country. They have an entire secondary that is going to be drafted. He is the best player in college football, but he has not had the biggest impact.
Who Will Win-Jalen Hurts-Hurts will put up some crazy fucking numbers over the last month to sway the voters. 3 different QBs have put up almost exactly the same numbers in this offense and they are on the verge of winning their 3rd straight Heisman. Now, don’t get me wrong, Hurts has been fucking incredible, but it’s the same thing we have seen from OU for 3 straight years. It’s been done before and OU will continue to do this as long as Lincoln Riley coaches them.