The calm before the storm is upon us. Week 10 consists of only 2 ranked matchups and 9 top 25 teams on a bye. Even with so many teams on bye though, there is still two huge matchups! One has NY6 implications in Memphis vs. SMU, while the other has major SEC and possible CFB Playoff implications in Georgia vs. Florida. There are still plenty of great games to bet on and I actually love the board this week so hopefully we can get back on track this week!
Last week was kind of a shitshow! Northwestern has the worst offense in CFB! Yes, worse than fucking Rutgers! ASU completely shit the bed against a 2 win UCLA team eliminating them from Pac 12 contention, while it seemed like LSU let off the brakes for the first time this season. Whatever.
Like I already noted, I love the board this week and combined we are even this year, but my ATS picks need to be better, and they will be better!
Overall ATS: 23-27
Overall O/U: 17-13
#8 Georgia -6 vs. #6 Florida-Game in Jacksonville, Florida
A rivalry that is over 110 years old, Florida vs. Georgia has been played in Jacksonville almost every single year since 1933. They have played every single year except 1943 and the only game that did not take place in Jacksonville since that time was in 1995.
Known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, this is the biggest attraction in Jacksonville all year long. Every single year fans from both teams make the trip to this game.
Now, in my mind, these two teams are trending in two different directions. Georgia, after their loss to South Carolina, is trending down, especially after a lackluster performance against Kentucky. Florida on the other hand has been great all season with their lone loss coming on the road to #1 LSU.
Kyle Trask has taken this job and fuckin run with it as he has taken Florida’s offense to heights they would not have reached with Felipe Franks under center. The defense has been a little off the last few games, but I expect them to wake up for this game.
We know exactly what Georgia is. They are a team who can run the shit out of the ball and will not ask a whole lot of Jake Fromm. The issue is, we saw what happens when they need Jake to make big plays against South Carolina. They don’t have the weapons on the outside that they have had in the past and it has showed all season if you have been paying attention.
Georgia’s defense is real good, but this is probably the best offense they have faced this season and they will need to come up big to keep Georgia in the game this week. I think Florida’s defense will be too much and Trask will do just enough to win this game for the Gators. I may even throw a little something on the moneyline.
Pick: Florida +6
Miami (FL) @ Florida State -3
Both teams are coming off of big wins last week, but both teams are also coming into this game with uncertainties at QB. It looks like Miami will be starting frosh Jarren Williams while FSU will be starting Wisconsin transfer, Alex Hornibrook.
Willie Taggart has had this team playing well, and they have played exceptionally well at home this year. The matchup to watch this week though will be FSU RB Cam Akers vs the Miami rush defense. Miami is in the top 20 in the nation in rush yards per game allowed and Cam Akers is currently 2nd in the ACC with 917 yards this year.
Another matchup to watch will be FSU’s solid DL against Miami’s shitty OL and frosh QB. If FSU dominates this matchup it is going to be a long fucking day for Jarren Williams and the Miami offense. I like FSU to really dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides leading to a big Seminole win.
Pick: Florida State -3
#9 Utah -3 @ Washington
What a fucking game this is shaping up to be. Washington is way better than their record indicates while Utah has been one of the most consistent teams in the Pac 12 all year long.
Utah boasts the top run defense in the country this season while also throwing an extremely efficient offense at you. Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss are trying to carry this offense to the Rose Bowl after missing out last year.
On the other side, it is not the run game, but Jacob Eason, who will have to come up big for Washington to pull the upset. Eason has been great this year. Washington, for the second year in a row, will spoil the Utes chances at getting to the Rose Bowl.
Pick: Washington +3
#7 Oregon -4.5 @ USC
USC has been really good at home this year. They are undefeated in the Coliseum this year including an upset over Utah. Oregon, on the flip side, is undefeated in true road games this year, with their only loss coming at a neutral site.
Justin Herbert has been playing out of his mind and I think the defense will get back on track to a certain extent this week. USC’s offense, led by Kedon Slovis, is methodic and if you’re not careful they can string together a few really good drives and put up some points.
I think this Oregon team is way better than everyone is giving them credit for and they know that they cannot afford another loss.
Pick: Oregon -4.5
TCU @ Oklahoma State -2.5
TCU is coming off their biggest win of the season over Texas last week and they looked real good in that win. Oklahoma State is also coming off a huge win, probably their biggest of the season, over Iowa State.
This game should be fucking awesome! You have one of the top 3 RBs in the nation in Chuba Hubbard going up against a top 15 run defense. On the other side of the coin, OkState is giving up 160 rush YPG and TCU has the best RBBC in the Big 12. If the Cowboys cannot stop the run they will not win this game.
TCU’s freshman QB Max Duggan played phenomenal last week and they will look for a big performance from him again this week.
Sam Saunders, another freshman QB, has been TO prone this year and needs to limit them this week. Both teams average a hair over 1 forced TO per game and I think that the team who takes care of the ball will win this one.
Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5
#14 Michigan @ Maryland O/U 56
Maryland’s defense is fuckin trash and I think Michigan’s offense finally figured it out last week. I expect a few slip ups from the Wolverine defense in a conference road game, but I expect the offense to score at will against a Terrapin team giving up 33 PPG.
Pick: Over 56
Virginia Tech @ #16 Notre Dame O/U 58
Notre Dame, outside of last week, has quietly been one of the best defenses in the country. We also know that Notre Dame’s offense has really shit the bed against some of the P5 teams they have played. Ian Book has struggled all season and Brian Kelly’s playcalling is ALWAYS a fucking question mark. VT’s defense is ass, but I do expect them to keep this game relatively close.
Pick: Under 58
Army @ Air Force O/U 45.5
Both of these teams are in the top 12 in rushing yards per game. They are both going to try and run the shit out of the ball all game long. I don’t see the defenses getting many stops and even though the pace of the game is going to be slow, I think both teams have plenty of success moving the ball, especially Air Force. Air Force averages 35 PPG this year and I expect them to at least match that, if not go over it.
Pick: Over 45.5
Like I said, I LOVED the board this week and I am expecting a big fucking week!