Grossman’s Gambling Guide-CFB Week 8

An incredible slate of games last weekend did not disappoint! People were complaining about the Red River Shootout starting at 12, but I am here to tell you that you are a fucking moron. Having great games from start to finish is the ultimate Saturday! Don’t get me wrong, I will watch whatever early games are on, but I am HERE for rivalry games being spread out and running all day. That allows you to pick your top game and stick to it.

This past weekend kind of sucked because the USC-ND game easily could have been scheduled for 330, but nooooo, they just had to play at 730, which was the exact same time as the Florida-LSU game. Now I have to miss most of what was one of the best games of the season so far to watch the Irish almost blow a 17 point lead to those fucking chodes at USC. No one loses when rivalry/ranked games run all day starting at noon!

Another shitty weekend has me back at .500 for the first time since Week 0, but it’s all good. We will get back on track this week!

Overall ATS: 20-20

Overall O/U: 14-10

#3 Clemson -25 @ Louisville

The spread in this game has actually gone up, meaning most of the action is on Clemson so far. I don’t really get it though because Clemson has looked great in 2 games this year, and so-so or bad in the other 4 games they have played. Trevor Lawrence does not look like the same guy who won the Natty last year. I don’t think anyone has actually watched Louisville this year though. They have already doubled their win total from last year and this is a COMPLETELY different team than last year. Scott Satterfield has done an incredible job turning this program around and after a 2 win season last year, they are competing for a spot in the ACC Championship game this year. Jawon Pass is out, but whether it is Micale Cunningham or Evan Conley, I really like this Cardinals offense. The crowd in Louisville is going to be crazy and Clemson needs to be careful this week!

Pick: Louisville +25

#9 Florida -5.5 @ South Carolina

Florida is a good team coming off a real tough loss to one of the best teams in the country. South Carolina on the other hand is an OK team who just beat one of the best teams in the country on the road. What this means to me is Florida is going to come out hungry as shit. The defense was completely shut out last week (no sacks or TOs) and they are looking to get back on track this week. The perfect recipe for a defense like this is a freshman QB with a bum knee. I actually really like Ryan Hilinski, but this is a shitty week for him to be playing with a sprained knee.

Pick: Florida -5.5

#12 Oregon -3 @ #25 Washington

Oregon is a very good football team and they are one fluke play away from being undefeated and in the top 7 in the country. Justin Herbert is an NFL QB and he is absolutely playing like it right now! Washington, in my mind, is the best coached team in the Pac-12 and one of the best coached teams in all of college football. Chris Petersen has put Washington back on the map in the last few years and they don’t seem to be leaving the conversation any time soon. This is going to be a great game and has the potential to be the best game of the week. Oregon will miss their leading receiver though in Jacob Breeland and it will show this weekend. Jacob Eason (who is also playing out of his fucking mind) knows they need to win out to play in the Rose Bowl and it all starts here.

Pick: Washington +3

#18 Baylor @ Oklahoma State -4.5

The Cowboys have 2 of the most talented offensive players in the country and they will be on full display this weekend. They both need to show the fuck out for the Cowboys to pull this one out and I think they will. Hubbard will probably get 25+ carries and Tylan Wallace should see 10+ targets. Baylor is undefeated but they have not looked impressive with the one exception being against KSU on the road. It speaks volumes when a Power 5 team is undefeated through 7 weeks and not ranked in the top 10.

Pick: Oklahoma State -4.5

#17 Arizona State @ #13 Utah -13.5

The Pac-12 will most likely not have a playoff contender this year, but don’t get it fuckin twisted, this is a really good conference! They are throwing ranked games at us week after week and I am here for it! Both of these teams are led by elite defenses allowing less than 18 PPG, but last week both of these teams showed that they can score a shit ton when they need to. (Utah didn’t really need to, Oregon State just blows) Arizona State already has 1 win on the road against a top 15 team when they beat Cal. The Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS as road dogs under Herm Edwards and I’m not sure if they will win this one, but they will keep it close.

Pick: Arizona State +13.5

#6 Wisconsin @ Illinois O/U 51

Wisconsin has played 6 games this year and the defense has pitched 4 shutouts. 4 FUCKING SHUTOUTS! I don’t care who you’re playing, that is impressive as shit. They run the shit out of the ball, dominate time of possession and they get after it on defense. Only 1 of their games has eclipsed 51 points and they did that by themselves in a shutout in Week 2 against Central Michigan. Wisconsin may pitch another shutout this week and win something like 45-0.

Pick: Under 51

Kentucky @ #10 Georgia O/U 45.5

Georgia’s offense has looked suspect over the last couple of weeks and it was just straight dogshit last week against South Carolina. Kirby Smart will have this team ready to go this week and Georgia might hit this over by themselves. Kentucky may be starting a WR at QB again this week, but he didn’t look awful last week and all you may need from the Wildcats here is 6-10 points.

Pick: Over 45.5

Temple @ #19 SMU O/U 60

SMU has an explosive offense, but Temple has been shutting down explosive offenses all season. Temple has a real good defense that has held two teams who are in the top 30 in scoring at least 10 points below their season average. I expect Temple to come out fighting to try and hand SMU their first loss.

Pick: Under 60

I am done being a fucking schmuck this year! I will get above .500 ATS and I will stay there!

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