Grossman’s Gambling Guide-CFB Week 5

Woooooof is all I have to say about last week! Kansas, Northwestern, Stanford all disappointed in home matchups as home dogs. Texas played real good and then Hubbard ran a score in with a minute and a half left in the game to backdoor cover. The real fucking downer was Kellen Mond and Texas A&M. They got their shit pushed in by Auburn and just got bullied all day long. The final score does not indicate how dominant Auburn was and how bad Mond was. The silver lining in all of this was I went 3-0 on Over/Unders. I’m still above .500 but it’s time to get back on fucking track!

Overall ATS 13-12

Overall O/U 10-5

Kansas @ TCU -14.5

TCU is coming off a real bad loss at home against SMU while Kansas tried to hang in there with WVU but ultimately fell short. In order to keep this game close Kansas is going to need to contain TCU star RB Darius Anderson. Anderson has totaled 430 yards and 3 TDs so far this year and TCU will try and ride him to a big conference win this week. Kansas is only giving up 4 YPC this year and hope to carry that over to Saturday. TCU is 31st in the nation in PPG while Kansas sits at 40th for PPG against and they will need to keep TCU right around KU’s season average of 20 PPG to have a chance here. GIVE ME LES ALL DAY!

Pick: Kansas +14.5

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -27.5

Oklahoma has won 7 in a row against TTU, but only once have they covered the current spread. 3 of those 7 have been a 1 score game. A lot of points will be scored but I’m not sure OU will come up with enough stops to cover almost 4 touchdowns. Texas Tech averages 33 points per game and OU will just try to outscore them, which they will. Not by 28 points though.

Pick: Texas Tech +27.5

USC @ Washington -10.5

USC has had some magic with their backup QBs leading them to big wins in tough spots, but there will not be any magic this weekend. Matt Fink will be overmatched and look for the Huskies star DB Myles Bryant to have a big game as he already has two picks this year. Jacob Eason will have his way in a statement game for Washington. Washington is 3-1 ATS this year and should get to 4-1.

Pick: Washington -10.5

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -4.5

Both of these teams are undefeated against the spread this year, but OkSt showed that they can play with anyone last week as they hung with Texas last week. This will be KSU’s first real test and I don’t think they will be able to stop Hubbard or Tylan Wallace. OkSt has a top 5 RB and WR in the country and it will show this week.

Pick: Oklahoma State -4.5

UCLA @ Arizona -6.5

Chip Kelly is back to life and I am back on my bullshit! UCLA had a huge win last weekend and they are looking to build on that win this weekend. Dorian Thompson-Robinson vs. Khalil Tate is the QB matchup you did not know you needed this weekend. These two are electric city! This will most likely be a high scoring affair with Arizona winning a close one.

Pick UCLA +6.5

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma O/U 70

Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley against Alan Bowman and Matt Wells. Points will not be hard to come by in a game that will probably have a final score of 49-31. It will be a long day for defenses in this one.

Pick: Over 70

Mississippi State @ Auburn O/U 46.5

Miss. St. has gone over in 3 of their 4 games but they have not played a defense as tough as Auburn’s yet. They travel to Auburn and the offense is going to have a tough day. Auburn on the other hand loves to rely on the run game and then Bo Nix makes plays when he needs to. They control the tempo of the game and have been under in 3 of their 4 games with the exception being last week at Texas A&M. Look for a game that Auburn wins in the 27-10 range.

Pick: Under 46.5

Indiana @ Michigan St. O/U 44

Michigan State’s offense finally came to life last week after look like dogshit against ASU the previous week. I watched that game from start to finish though and MSU’s “offensive explosion” can be attributed to their defense shitting on NW’s offense. They played with short fields and NW’s defense spent an ass ton of time on the field. Look for their offense to revert back to not scoring a lot of points.

Pick: Under 44

These are all mortal locks! I will not have another week under .500! Mark my words!

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