The day is finally fucking upon us! NFL football is officially back! Welcome to your first NFL edition of Grossman’s Gambling Guide! After week 1 of the CFB season I am off to a fucking scorching start at 8-2 against the spread and 5-1 on the over/unders! Easy money so far and I will keep fucking hitting them for you guys!
Now the moment we have all been waiting for, the first NFL gambling pick of the season!
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears -3 Over/Under 46.5
If you remember, last season these two teams opened up on Sunday Night Football in Week 1 and it was a fucking classic. The Bears jump out to a huge lead on the back of their defense but Rodgers leads the comeback to squeak out a win. That obviously didn’t mean much as the Bears still won the division and the Packers missed the playoffs, but I think we are looking at another great game here!
Rodgers and company are in the first season under new head coach Matt LaFleur and his new system. As seen in Tennessee, his new system will rely heavily on the run game which will bode well for Aaron Jones. At least in every other week it will. Going into Chicago, against the league’s best defense, in the first season in a new system will not go well for the Packers. I really think it is going to take a few weeks for this Packer offense to fully get going under the new system. Now is it possible Rodgers and Davante Adams completely fuck the Bears up by themselves? Yes it is definitely possible. Rodgers is the most talented QB in the league and Adams has moved himself into the best WR in the league convo and at times is a fucking monster. I don’t see it happening, but with the talent these 2 have anything is possible.
Now onto the Bears. This Bears defense is fucking ready for this matchup. Too many people have been talking about regression and this Bears defense wants to get out there and shut everyone the fuck up. They still have Khalil Mack, and a guy who can get to the QB like Mack makes everyone on the defense better. The thing is with them though is the Bears have plenty of fucking talent on this defense. There are studs at almost every position and they showed how they can dominate last year.
What may hold the Bears back this year is the offense. If Trubisky cannot take a big leap forward this team will not win the division. He has talented enough guys on the outside to make plays for him and they love this rookie Montgomery, for good reason, but it all comes back to Trubisky. He was pretty shitty at times last year and if the Bears want to make a Super Bowl run, they cannot afford consistently shitty play from their QB. I think he will make the leap forward and he will have a great season. The thing is he does not have to win games, he just has to not lose games for this team. The defense and running game need to be relied on for the most part, but when they do call his number he needs to take care of the ball and make good throws. I think it happens starting tonight in Week 1.
The Packers defense is projected to be in the bottom half of the league this year so Montgomery will get a chance to show off his skills and I expect him to do so. Trubisky may not have to make too many plays, as Montgomery and the O-line should have their way for the most part with the Packers front 7. Chicago will control the tempo of the game and try to keep Rodgers off the field as much as possible by using Montgomery and Tarik Cohen as a two headed monster.
I like the Packers this year, and I have them in the playoffs, but they will take a tumble to start the season. Rodgers will have a chance to win it at the end of the game but the Bears defense will make enough plays to seal the deal. Bears win 24-20!
Verdict-The Bears will barely cover the 3 point spread and defense rules as the teams stay below the 46.5 hitting the under!
Take it to the bank! Get these bets in before the line starts moving around and make that fucking money!
Check back on Friday night for your CFB Week 2 and then Saturday night for NFL Week 1 gambling guides!