Grossman’s Gambling Guide CFB Week 1

After going undefeated on Thursday night we look to bring that momentum into Saturday! Every Friday night I will pick 5 college games ATS and 3 O/Us. Every Saturday night, starting next week, I will give you 3 NFL ATS picks and 1 O/U. Every Monday I will post my recap congratulating all of you schmucks if you took my advice. Tomorrow we have our first real full slate of games! That means a morning routine of something like this: wake up hungover, coffee, smoke, College Gameday, College Football ALL DAY LONG! There are not a lot of huge matchups tomorrow with only one ranked matchup, but there will be plenty of good games to throw some money on, so let’s jump right in!

Boise State vs. Florida St. -6.5 (Game moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee)

Florida St. is trying to bounce back from their first losing season in over 40 years. That is how great this team has been for the last 4 decades. Not a single losing season until last year. This spread on this game was 3 before they moved the game to Tallahassee due to the incoming hurricane. Boise St. returns their entire starting OL and their starting RB. That is usually a recipe for success but they are starting a freshman QB. I think Boise slows the game down by running the shit out of the ball leading to a low scoring game. This will keep the Broncos in the game.

Pick: Boise St. +6.5

Ole Miss @ Memphis -4.5

Memphis returns their two stars from the 4th ranked offense in the country in terms of YPG. They bring back their star QB Brady White and their star RB, Patrick Taylor. White threw for over 3,500 yards last year while Taylor ran for over 1,100 yards last year. Ole Miss was no slouch on offense either as they finished 9th in YPG last year. They are also returning their star RB in Scottie Phillips, who ran for over 900 yards last year. The difference maker to me will be that Ole Miss is starting a redshirt freshman at QB. Matt Corral was redshirted after playing in 4 games last year, therefore not wasting his year of eligibility. I believe that the redshirt freshman makes one or two more mistakes than the senior QB letting Memphis sneak this one out.

Pick: Memphis -4.5

Northwestern @ Stanford -6

Northwestern lost their QB to the NFL, but they have two players who Pat Fitzgerald believes can lead this team to compete in the Big 10. Hunter Johnson and T.J. Green have both been in competition for the starting QB role, but a starter has yet to be named. WR Bennett Skowrownek returns which will make the life of whatever QB they go with a little easier. What else is sure to make the QB’s life easier is the return of leading rusher Isaiah Bowser. Stanford brings back their QB in K.J. Costello, but they did lose their biggest skill players in Bryce Love and JJ Arcega-Whiteside. A solid defense will keep this game relatively close.

Pick: Northwestern +6

Virginia Tech -4.5 @ Boston College

An ACC matchup to get these teams right into the swing of things this year. Virginia Tech is coming off of an extremely disappointing 6-7 season while BC is coming off of a solid but not great 7-5 season. BC led by Jr QB, Anthony Brown, is looking to take the leap to an 8, 9, or even 10 win team this year. They also return their Jr. RB A.J. Dillon who ran for 220 and 3 TDs against the Hokies last year. It will be more of the same this time around.

Pick: Boston College +4.5

Virginia -2.5 @ Pittsburgh

Virginia, by many accounts, might be the second best team in the ACC this year. QB Bryce Perkins is looking to build on his 2,600 yard season a year ago. The OL returns most of the starters but UVA lost their leading WR and RB from last year and they will need to replace that production. Pittsburgh won the Coastal Division last season before being blown out in the ACC Championship Game by Clemson. Pittsburgh also returns their starting QB, Kenny Picket, from last year, although he was suspect at best last year throwing only 12 TDs in 14 games. They will also need to replace 4 starters on the OL which could spell trouble for Picket.

Pick: Virginia -2.5

Oregon @ Auburn O/U 55.5

In the only ranked matchup of the day, and a rematch of the 2011 BCS Championship Game, Auburn takes on Oregon in Jerry’s World on Saturday night. Oregon has an outside Heisman hopeful in Justin Herbert, while Auburn will start freshman QB Bo Nix against the Ducks. Both teams averaged over 28 PPG last year and will look to continue that trend this year. Both teams had solid defenses last year as well, but two high flying offenses facing off means only one thing, a lot of points.

Pick: Over 55.5

Fresno St. @ USC O/U 52.5

Fresno St. had a really good defense last year finishing 3rd in the country in opponent PPG. USC has a really solid QB coming back for his sophomore year in JT Daniels. Heading into the Coliseum I think offenses rule this game.

Pick: Over 52.5

Holy Cross @ Navy O/U 53.5

Holy Cross heads into Annapolis looking to pull a huge upset, but we all know that most likely won’t happen. Navy loves to control the tempo of the game by running the shit out of the ball. Navy was 4th in the country in rush attempts last year and 9th in yards. This game is going to be a slugfest with Navy most likely dominating in the trenches, slowing down the game.

Pick: Under 53.5

Take these to the bank, and thank me later!

Leave a Reply